Insight

Marketers for mining providers are planning their 2027 strategy now. The good ones will be desperate to understand what’s likely to shape the industry next year, to align messaging and demonstrate credibility as partners.

We watch the sector closely and will publish a review of this year and our 2027 predictions as some digestible, festive-season fodder leading into Christmas – but that will be of little comfort to marketers facing budget approvals in the first half of the last quarter.

So, in an early show of festive spirit, here are the themes we see dominating mining headlines through the closing stages of 2026 and beyond, plus the issues gathering momentum that could define 2027.

1. War: inflation, operational challenges, boom on hold

The industry is taking baby steps while war in the Middle East puts most industries on hold. News flow from mining has fallen by a third over the past three months as hopes of an imminent solution fade. Diesel and sulphuric acid restrictions and price escalation are already causing real operational problems and softening financials, and the lack of visibility makes planning (read: investment) exceptionally difficult. This is an energy shock that will not resolve when the Strait of Hormuz normalises, so expect a 12-month readjustment, at least.

Two knock-on themes matter for metals and mining. 

Inflation is back on the table, and markets are largely pricing in a Fed rate increase before year-end that will hurt metal pricing. Coordinated global growth stays impossible while these conflicts rage and the US continues a zero-sum approach to trade. Expect volatility in metal stocks to deliver short-term price spikes throughout.

That lack of global cooperation is what’s missing for another Super Cycle, or a structural shift in metals consumption. Drivers already champing at the bit are an AI-driven economy, its infrastructure build-out and the energy transition.

2. Supply chains, government finance & resource nationalism

Feeding the machines that drive national policy – munitions restocking, an AI arms race and, often, still the energy transition – will keep pulling government budgets into mining. The amounts announced for ‘Critical Minerals Programs’ feel nominal against the scale of the challenges, but Western administrations are finding the money for supply-chain security, defining a fractured world order in which ex-US administrations juggle independence from China and the US. Financing favours projects showing supply-chain integration, and the dearth of upstream capital will remain an underexplored (pardon the pun) theme.

This prioritisation is creating a fresh wave of resource nationalisation in emerging economies. Indonesia is playing downstream Chinese investment against critical mineral supply to the West; the DRC is toying with local content legislation and export caps while signing major supply deals, most recently with the US.

Expect advisory opportunities in risk mitigation and in preparing assets for government funding – including from governments assessing assets to buy.

3. Critical-mineral reshuffle

‘Critical minerals’ has become an irrelevant catch-all and a political tool for accelerating permitting. More relevant is the emergence of previously neglected commodities out of necessity, and the continued copper shortage. Renewed interest in uranium continues, alongside less covert consumption and production of thermal coal. Gold projects still make up the volume work and should be a priority; copper projects are the massive opportunity and large projects with long decision-making windows will need to be courted continuously.

4.  Investment focus on capacity and technology

We’ve tracked 43 projects worth US$12.3 billion inside the 12-18 month execution window – projects actively researching for suppliers right now. Two themes emerge. First, brownfield processing-plant expansions at producing mines: 18 projects, US$6.7 billion of debottlenecking and capacity adds. Second, and more interesting, a concentrated wave of digital and automation deployment. Technology is 28% of near-term projects (12 of 43) – its highest share of any horizon – and these are the majors’ flagship programs, largely yet to be awarded.

5. AI and technology dichotomy: wasting capital vs foundational approach

AI-related projects are a clear majority of mining initiatives by volume, though not by value. Our technology research – The Authority Gap – and our work in digitalisation and exploration suggests the industry is ill-equipped to grasp AI opportunities. Excitement (and FOMO) is contagious, but knee-jerk investment should be avoided. At C-suite level, under the direct light of investors who want the AI opportunity actioned, commitments are made and pushed down. At senior management level there is reluctance, because data foundations are poor. The split is between organisations rebuilding those foundations with a greater focus on data hygiene, and those rushing into projects likely to fail. The latter could recreate the Digitalisation Bubble of a decade ago, when executives wasted literally billions on failed initiatives.

GATHERING PACE

• Deepsea mining: An increasing push toward seafloor mining, with diverging attitudes on ecosystem sensitivity and environmental risk. Regardless of international law, either the US or China will thrust into domestic and international waters – already happening – and at a threshold will likely trigger a ‘Deepsea Arms Race’. Worth reviewing exposure and skills.
• Exploration: Ignorance around the necessity for early-stage exploration remains. ‘Critical minerals’ money keeps flowing downstream, while jurisdictions either neglect exploration capital (eg. US, Indonesia) or harm it (eg. Australia’s latest budgeting efforts). Grassroots exploration made up 20% of total exploration last year, vs 24% five years earlier and almost 40% in 2005. Focus on mature assets while funding remains thin, but be ready for the pivot.
• Data integration: Our research shows major frustration with data foundations and with applying new technologies and datasets to legacy systems and data pools. As digitalisation increases, clean data will be prioritised, potentially over technical skills. A key question providers should be asking to win business: “What do you need from us to ensure easy integration of our products and services?”
• Connectivity: As the industry digitises and automates, connectivity becomes a greater priority. The biggest issue is drop-outs causing safety systems like CAS to pause, derailing operations. Our research shows a knowledge gap between the bandwidth a mine needs, what is in place, and what will be needed as digital maturity, slowly, advances.
• Automation: Stalled it may be – actual automated sites versus the column inches is stark – but the theme will march forward over the next 12 months, and the industry will one day be automated. AI could accelerate it, pending the data issues above. At a workshop we ran for a large technology group, 60 senior mining professionals unanimously cited automation, driven by the safety imperative, as the technology that will shape mining in the next decade. Asked how to manage that transition, few had suggestions. Angling solutions toward automated sites should be front-of-mind for relevant providers.
• Tailings: The usual ESG angle, but increasingly looking at TSFs as mineral deposits and carbon sinks. An opportunity for metallurgists, process and tailings engineers, and carbon experts.